What southern Vietnam will look like in 2050

I hate to be so negative on this blog, but there is a new research report out that tries to be more accurate at estimating the impact of higher sea levels on low-lying cities/areas. Unfortunately for Vietnam, it is not a pretty picture. You can see the pictures below that come from this NY Times article.

By 2050, south Vietnam south and west of Ho Chi Minh City will basically disappear. These new projections use more accurate readings of current elevation of these areas, taking into account trees, buildings, etc. The old projections weren’t as accurate, so understated the impact of rising sea levels.

The figures for 2100 are even worse. Previous models estimate that 110m people worldwide live in areas that will be inundated by sea level rise. This new model estimates 190m people, or 80m people more currently live in areas that are affected. That’s based on low carbon emissions. High emissions are even worse (obviously).

Take this:

In Asia, CoastalDEM [this new model] indicates that even with deep cuts to carbon emissions (K14/RCP 2.6),… Vietnam…may, by end-of-century, face high tide lines higher than land now home to….26 (23–31)% of their people…before accounting for episodic flooding events. [Ellipses just take out references to Bangladesh and Thailand to focus on Vietnam.]

Currently that 26% is 5pp worse than current estimates. And that assumes deep cuts to carbon emissions.

Remember this just takes current population levels. If these areas are underwater, people won’t be living here. Also, the analysis doesn’t incorporate coastal defenses that may mitigate some of the rise. And finally, maybe people just get used to living in waterlogged areas. There is a novel by Kim Stanley Robinson that looks at people living in a flooded New York. It’s called New York 2140. I’ve only read part of it, but I like it so far. Those people seem fine. I guess people get used to it. Sad to think we, as a species, have basically given up on large swaths of the globe.

Source: New York Times