Vietnam as an example for North Korea
/As I wrote yesterday, there are a few articles that talk about Vietnam as an example of a path for North Korea and Kim Kim Jong-un.
The reasons are numerous:
Vietnam was the winner of a war with the US. The Korean war was very different, but ultimately, North Korea was able to maintain a separate regime from the South and its allies.
North Korea has been isolated from much of the Western world, much like Vietnam was after the war.
The government of Kim Jong-un wants to maintain power, but would probably be amenable to greater living standards, especially for the elite.
Vietnam has already gone through a transition like this and has generally succeeded. The Communist Party remains in control, people’s living standards are higher, and the elite are better off.
Vietnam is one of the few countries in the world where America is seen positively and that number is growing. According to a Pew Research poll, in 2017 84% of Vietnamese have a favorable view of the US, up from 76% in 2014. From America’s perspective, if something like that happened with North Korea, it would be a major win.
Now we have the Trump-Kim summit coming up in the next few weeks in advance of which the Vietnamese foreign minister made a trip to N. Korea this week. So it looks like the magic could start to work soon!
My opinion is this: no f*ing way.
First, it’s great that Vietnam has opened up its economy, but it has a not great human rights record and that seems to be getting worse with recent crackdowns. The only area where it is improving is in its campaign against corruption, but most Vietnamese do not have the right of free expression, assembly, etc. It is not a great example of an open system.
Second, if Kim decides North Korea should be like Vietnam, does the world need another market-friendly dictatorship ? A system like that can raise living standards, but at the expense of opening up of the economy to real freedom. I believe that economic freedom is maybe necessary but by itself is insufficient to be true freedom. Sometimes its not freedom at all, if corporations just take the place of government in all aspects.
Many people believe that when countries open up their markets they will eventually be forced to open up their political systems as well. Exhibit A is China. Exhibit B is Vietnam! Both countries have pretty open markets, and yet, neither are democracies.
Now, is it better for North Korea to be tied to the world economically rather than isolated? Yes, I would say so. And it would likely decrease the chance that the government would actually launch one of their (non-existent, according to the US government) nuclear weapons. It could also help the world better understand North Korea and North Korea understand the world. That would all be good.
But going from here to there seems really difficult. North Korea’s won’t give up its nuclear weapons program. The rest of the world won’t allow a nuclear-powered North Korea. Until one side backs down, the regime will continue to be isolated.
In a dream world, Kim would go to Vietnam, see how advanced the country is, and decide that he needed to open his country. He would make a real deal to get rid of his nuclear weapons' program in exchange for aid and trade with the outside world. Eventually, the country would open up so much that the demilitarized zone could actually be demilitarized and the border with South Korea open. Let’s all hope that happens, but I sincerely doubt it.
PS By chance I just saw that the New York Times magazine published an article about North Korea and its opening up. Maybe Kim does want to open up, but what will Trump ask in exchange, if anything.