South China Sea

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This blog has entered into the political realm more than I expected (or wanted), over the past few days. I think it is probably because I am intensely interested in politics, plus, we are seeing that politics are extremely important in economics. For example, the trade tension (war?) between China and Vietnam is having significant effects on all the countries of Asia and the world. Vietnam, in particular, is seeing increased foreign investment because of this. And politics matters a lot to economic growth and therefore predictions of economic growth.

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So I was interested to see more news on the South China Sea, specifically, Vietnam has built up 10 islets there. These are in the Spratley islands, which are claimed by China and the Philippines as well. And the government hopes the islets are self-sustaining and are not easy for China to take over easily.

CSIS, the home of the panel I attended yesterday, has a Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative that follows all of this. A recent report from them said:

“Development of military-controlled islands that Vietnam has occupied for decades in the South China Sea’s Spratly Island chain involves landfill work plus installation of solar panels on some buildings, the initiative report says. The report points also to 25 “pillbox” forts that Vietnam has built on sometimes submerged reefs or banks.”

The original VOA story says that any disputes between the ASEAN countries have been easily settled, but the bigger dispute between China and these countries are more difficult. I found two quotes interesting and somewhat mutually exclusive.

  • China normally leaves Vietnam alone at sea because they have shown a willingness to “bump shoulders” with Chinese vessels if pushed, he said.

  • China and the Philippines have complained occasionally to Vietnam over the years because its islets fall into their claims. But the complaints fade because the other countries do not see Vietnam as a threat, scholars believe.

Foreign policy experts see conflict in the South China Sea as one of the major concerns in the near- to medium-term. Japan and the US have been supportive of the Philippines and Vietnam in their disputes. As we talked about two days ago, the Thucydides trap is real, and South China Sea could be a flashpoint. Vietnam’s strategy of building defensive forts in the sea is probably the best way to go, although the more there are and the bigger they grow, the bigger the threat.

Lots of pictures of these tiny islands in the South China Sea can be found here.