MMs: Measles and manufacturing

Two stories caught my attention today.

First, the Philippines are facing a massive measles outbreak. Since January, according to NPR, there have been more than 33,000 cases and 466 deaths from measles. That is crazy. Especially for a country that had basically eliminated measles back in the 90s.

There is one main reason for it: fewer children are getting vaccinated. It looks like routine vaccinations have generally declined, but also there was a scandal over a dengue-fever vaccine two years ago. Basically a French pharmaceutical company, Sanofi Pasteur, stopped a dengue fever vaccine program because it was raising the risk of death for people that had not had dengue fever previously. More than 60 children may have died after receiving the vaccine, according to the Filipino Department of Health.

It looks like the outbreak is slowing somewhat, helped by the fact that the government has vaccinated 5.5 million people against measles. It hopes to reach 20 million by September. That’s 1/5th of the population.

In the NPR article, there was also this statistic on Madagascar: more than 1,000 people have died of measles there. The US has seen increased cases, and measles from Vietnam were exported to Melbourne as well. So this is a worldwide issue.

In Vietnam, measles have increased this year. I wrote about this previously (March 11), but I thought I would highlight it again, because of what’s happening in the Philippines and also a recent article reporting that there are about 90 cases of measles in Hanoi a week (about 1,200 since the start of the year, at least through May 15).

Not getting vaccinated is a real issue. There can be a number of reasons for that: cost, time, transportation. All of those can be overcome, especially by a government that really wants to get it done. But there is another reason why people don’t want to get vaccinated: fear.

• Fear of contracting a disease or even dying, like those poor Filipino children did, is one. But that’s based on facts. The dengue fever vaccine was not safe for children, and should not have been given to them.

• The other type of fear is fear based on untruths or lies. One paper in Nature implying a link between vaccines and autism started the anti-vax movement in much of the Western world.

Overcoming these fears are extremely hard. One thing that might help is, sadly, the sickness and death of people suffering from measles. People forget the horrors of many of these diseases because they haven’t been exposed to them. The current outbreak is a sad wake-up call for many people. Otherwise, I believe education may be somewhat helpful, but also what I think of as extreme empathy. Really trying to understand why these people are afraid of vaccines, treating them as intelligent people, acknowledge their fears but also try to work through them. This article explains a bunch of steps to take that lay this out well.

It is very hard to convince someone to do something that goes against their beliefs. But it is critical to the world for us to try.

DATA: INVESTING.COM; CHART: HARRY STEVENS/AXIOS

Second, economists are worried about manufacturing. PMIs for the Eurozone came in at 47.7, implying a contraction in manufacturing, and it has been below 50 since February. The US was just 50.6, the lowest score since 2009, and Japan appears to be in contraction based on an early reading. (Hattip: Axios).

I checked on Vietnam, and it is bucking the trend. PMI scores in Vietnam have increased to 52.5 in April, up from 51.9 in March and a fourth month high. Since November 2014 (reading 49.4), it has been above 50 and basically improving.

SOURCE: NIKKEI, IHS MARKIT

This is probably due to the increased trade, some of which is secular, some of which is short term and driven by the US-China trade war and US tariffs.

But it makes me worried that manufacturing is falling most everywhere, and the economic growth generally is at risk. Vietnam, in that situation, may find it difficult to keep growing at these high (6% plus) levels.

The next PMI for Vietnam comes out on June 3 at 00:30 UTC, so I will check that out.

Note that Vietecon will be away on Monday and back to my regular schedule on Tuesday, May 28, 2019.