The health of swine – swine flu outbreak

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Just an update on the swine flu. Good news on at least one front: the government says it is close to producing a vaccine against swine flu. That’s great news.

Just to give you a sense of what has already happened:

SOURCE: UN FAO

SOURCE: UN FAO

  • The flu has spread to 61 of 63 counties. Let’s just assume it is everywhere now; I don’t see how it could not be. 

  • Over 2.9 million pigs have been culled.

  • This is more than the number of pigs culled in China (1.1 million).

  • But the Chinese figures for how many pigs are infected are probably too low.

  • This is likely the worst animal epidemic the world has ever seen.

That 2.9 million figure is likely to go up and represents about 10% of all pigs. That is going to mean a big decline in pork products in the market. As a reminder, pork represents about 70% of meat consumption in Vietnam. (Previously I said 75%, but it is hard to get a real number - let’s say it is somewhere between 2/3rds and 3/4ths).

Trade effects:

  • Imports of pork products have risen 6.7x to $24m, and this has helped keep prices reasonable. The article says that imports are around $3-5 per pound.

  • Funnily enough, pork exports have risen 1.8x in the first four months of the year to $25m, just slightly above imports. This is a fairly small amount, given that total agricultural exports are around $30bn, but I assume that these exports are mainly to China and Hong Kong, which have suffered from the flu.

Farmers are really being hurt, and families, because there are tons of families that raise their own pigs. Of course, not all of these will cull their pigs, meaning that the disease is more likely to spread and continue.

I first wrote about the swine flu back in March 7 when I said the government is taking it seriously. I think they are, but they clearly aren’t doing enough to stop it. Maybe it will start to subside, like China says it has, but I bet eradication won’t happen until there is a vaccine. Hopefully, this government vaccine is real, but scientists don’t think so.

Final thought: I bet if this keeps up, there is going to be significant changes in diets and trade because of the flu. It will take Vietnam some time to recover, and in the meantime imports will continue to flood in and people will look to other sources of protein.