Huawei

Vietnam made the front page of the New York times (or at least the front of my web version of the New York Times). The title of the article is great: “Is Huawei a Security Threat? Vietnam Isn’t Taking any Chances.”

SOURCE: SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

The basic gist is that Vietnam is not using Huawei tech for 5G (we have talked about this before - see the post on May 20, 2019). The Vietnamese carriers have chosen to go with other providers (see table to the right). Vietnam says it is not because of their fear of China (no, not at all), but because they have just decided to go a different way.

Vietnam is in a tricky position. China has always been the dominant force in the neighborhood. And the Vietnam war was, in a way, a war over Chinese and Soviet control of Vietnam, at least according to the US participants. It turns out that Vietnam has a complicated and sometimes antagonistic relationship with China, and maybe the US didn’t have many reasons to be worried about Chinese control. And that complicated relationship continues, with a brewing brouhaha in the South China Sea, where Vietnam is forcefully defending its territory. But the government is also worried that people will protest Chinese encroachment of the sea, as they did last summer, and so it is not being bellicose about its military actions.

Like every other country in the world, Vietnam needs China’s investment and market, but it also wants to safeguard its own sovereignty. Of course, Vietnam is much smaller (but still quite big) and poorer (but growing, and a place for Chinese investment). Both need each other, but ultimately Vietnam needs China more than China needs Vietnam. Because of this, the Vietnamese government will have to make a lot of tough decisions, like this 5G technology issue, that prioritize certain things (national security, technology) but don’t piss off the Chinese too much.

Ultimately, looking at the US, it has been unable to force countries to go along with them, even with lots of money (see Pakistan). China may start to see it is running into the same problem, especially as people in these countries protest.

Vietnam is not alone in walking a tight line as it deals with China’s rise in South East Asia. Cambodia has a big resort that everyone is worried will be taken over by the Chinese. And Sri Lanka already lost a big port to China. Vietnam is trying to ensure it doesn’t run into the same problems, but it is going to be difficult.