Friday roundup

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I am proud to say that I was able to write about something besides the coronavirus for two days, but I have to include it in my Friday roundup:

1) There are now 12 coronavirus cases in Vietnam, as of yesterday, which isn’t too bad. But I expect this understates the real number, and it will continue to rise.

In the meantime, schools were shut last week and will probably be again this week. Plane flights are cancelled, and the border is mostly shut.

That has affected companies in Vietnam that can’t get supplies, as reported here. This is going to have a big impact on Vietnam’s economy:

Although China has largely weathered Trump’s trade war, many economists expect its annual growth to slump to below 4 percent for the first quarter as services halt and consumers avoid going out due to contagion fears.

The coronavirus itself isn’t hurting the economy. It is actually the efforts to limit the coronavirus that is hurting the economy. If there were a vaccine or a cure, then it wouldn’t be that big a deal.

2) Vietnam introduced hefty fines for fake news. That makes me, as a blogger, worried. I try very hard to get all my stories correct, but I do make mistakes. I correct them, but that might not be enough here. Plus I have opinions. A writer without opinions is kind of useless, even for an “objective” journalist. Even the most objective journalist needs to contextualize things, and adding context takes judgement and opinions.

Of course, I agree with why they are doing it: there is “fake news” [I must say Trump was a genius for naming this]. In Vietnam, this new law is meant to stop rumors and misinformation spreading about the coronavirus. In the US we have seen horror stories about anti-vaccine “news” that led to a measles outbreak and this horrifying story about a woman who wouldn’t buy or give her child Tamiflu, guided by an anti-vaccine facebook group. The child died.

But I am worried that the authorities will be heavy-handed in applying this new law and round up people with legitimate opinions. This is bad for the government and the country. Better to have open conversations about big, contentious issues.

3) Rooftop solar got a boost a few weeks ago, but the story might have been buried under all of the other things happening.

Following recommendations by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam's power utility Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) has agreed to maintain the current feed-in tariffs for solar rooftop installations at US$9.35c/kWh until 2021, in order to encourage solar development.

That’s a very good price, and should help support new development.

4) The country is trying to move back to bicycle mobility. As a somewhat avid bicyclist, this is great news. Like in many major western cities, people will be able to rent bikes and drop them off all around time. And there will also be dedicated bike lanes. My view is that unless the bike lanes can be truly protected from the rest of the traffic, HCMC won’t be able to promote bicycles successfully. It’s just too scary, with motorbikes and cars. But maybe that’s just scaredy-cat me.

5) Business households are not incorporating. HCMC’s government has trying to get family business to incorporate for a few years. It hasn’t worked, with the numbers falling annually. That’s because it is an extremely hard sell. There are tax and reporting requirements that no one wants. Unless fines get big or the benefits get bigger, I just don’t see this happening.

6) There are a bunch of infrastructure projects in HCMC now (here and here):

  • Antiflooding project: Total cost of VND10tr ($431m), this is a big one and has been delayed. The city hasn’t handed over the final plots of land to the contractor yet, so we will see when this is finished.

  • Four arterial roads in Thu Thiem: This is another big project costing VND8.2tr ($354m). This is centrally located and will have a major impact on the center of the city.

  • Thu Thiem Bridge 2: This will connect Thu Thiem to District 1 at a cost of VND4.26tr ($184m). More land issues here. So I expect this will be delayed a bit.

  • New Eastern bus station: Total cost is VND4tr ($173m). It will have capacity for 7 million passengers. This should be opening soon. It may have to wait on…

  • Flyover in front of the new Mien Dong (Eastern) bus station in District 9: Estimated to cost VND437bn ($19m), it will go out for bid this year.

  • An Suong tunnel: It’s halfway built, and the total cost is VND514bn ($22m). It should help traffic to the southwest of the city.

  • Intersection at Nguyen Van Linh-Nguyen Huu Tho crossroads in District 7: This has been partially approved with a budget of VND830bn ($36m).

Just adding these up, it is a total value of $1.2bn, and that definitely undercounts just what is in these two articles (other roads are mentioned without price tags).

My opinion is that if the central government is worried about the coronavirus’ impact on economic growth, it should speed up this infrastructure spending. In Western countries, the economic payoff of new infrastructure is not as great, because all of the important roads have been built. But in Vietnam, every government dollar spent on infrastructure has a big multiplier, because make transport and logistics so much more efficient. Same with trains, buses, airports.

Let’s hope both that the coronavirus is ultimately controlled without too much damage and that the government invests in this infrastructure.